Charlie Oppenheim's last visa bulletin prediction for FY 2022 - Charlie is retiring!

  

In the latest Chat with Charlie, DOS Visa Office Chief Mr. Charlie Oppenheim once again shared his insights about the movements of the Visa Bulletin, including his predictions for FY 2022.  This will be the last sharing by Charlie as he will be retiring from his job. The key information shared is as follows: 

• EB-2 India and China will likely advance for December for a few months, benefiting from spillover from EB-1.  However, EB-2 may retrogress if there is a large number of  cases "upgrading" from EB-3 in the future.

• EB-3 India and China will likely stay retrogressed for the near future.

• The annual visa cap for family immigration will remain at 226,000.   The annual visa cap for employment immigration will be about 280,000, which is a combination of the regular annual cap of 140,000 plus the 140,000 leftover visa numbers from family categories of FY 2021.

• EB-1 will likely stay current for all countries.

• Most family immigration categories will not likely advance due to the huge backlog of family cases in overseas consulate posts.  However, Charlie predicted that some family visa categories for Philippines and Mexico may advance in the coming months.  

• Family 2A (spouses and unmarried minor children of lawful residents) will remain current. 

• Charlie explained that there were 62K unused employment visa numbers from FY 2021, despite the efforts by USCIS trying to use them up.  Currently there is no legal requirement to deploy unused fiscal year employment visa numbers. 

•  When asked about why EB-3 retrogressed for India and China, Charlie explained that he had expected and predicted that there would be no retrogression initially. However, in late September and early October, Charlie was advised that USCIS was able to sustain the beefed up processing efforts after reopening. Consequently USCIS was able to process a larger number of EB-3 cases for other countries, resulting in additional demand for EB-3 visa numbers, Hence, he must set back the dates for India and China.  

• EB-3 India:  Overall, there are already a total of 44,751 EB-3 India cases with current priority date pending for FY 2022.  Because the per country cap is only 5,605, it will take time for the system to "digest" these pending cases.  This is why EB-3 India has to be retrogressed.

• Charlie also provided his estimates in general for EB-3 allocation in FY 2022.  Charlie estimated a total of 80,080 visa numbers for EB-3 category, 5,605 each to be allocated to India and China respectively, and about 55K to be allocated for all other countries.  The remaining 13,870 visa numbers will then be allocated to other Indian and Chinese EB-3 applicants purely based on priority dates. 

• Congress is actively debating immigration reform. New laws may completely overhaul the current immigration system. Stay tuned for updates!

(Immigration laws and policies change regularly.  If you have any questions regarding this article, please visit www.1visa1.com to schedule legal consultation.)  

December 2020 Visa Bulletin: EB-1 Advances

In December 2020 Visa Bulletin, employment-based categories advance moderately.  Family-based categories remain stagnant.  

As predicted last week, the Final Action Date of EB-1 India and China advance 5 months to April 1, 2019.  The EB-2 and EB-3 categories move forward slightly.  

The Filing Date of EB-3 India has retrogressed by one year, after October bulletin's 5-year advancement. "Downgrading" is still possible form EB-2 to EB-3 for certain Indian applicants.

Family visa categories are mostly unchanged. Charlie Oppenheim expected that there will be forward movements in January 2021. 

USCIS  Adjustment of Status Dates for December 2020

Adjustment of status (AOS) applicants in the F2A category - which may file using the Final Action Dates chart in the December 2020 Visa Bulletin. 

Applicants in all other family-sponsored preference and employment-based preference categories must use the Dates for Filing chart.

AD: Dates for Final Action (Green Card Approval)           FD: Dates for Filing Applications Only

Family		Other Countries	China	India	Mexico	Philippines
F1	AD	09/15/2014	09/15/2014	09/15/2014	01/08/1998	12/15/2011
	FD	07/22/2015	07/22/2015	07/22/2015	02/22/2000	10/08/2012
F2A	AD	C	C	C	C	C
	FD	08/01/2020	08/01/2020	08/01/2020	08/01/2020	08/01/2020
F2B	AD	07/08/2015	07/08/2015	07/08/2015	04/08/1999	08/01/2011
	FD	05/01/2016	05/01/2016	05/01/2016	12/01/1999	04/01/2012
F3	AD	06/15/2008	06/15/2008	06/15/2008	08/01/1996	02/15/2002
	FD	06/01/2009	06/01/2009	06/01/2009	08/15/2000	12/22/2002
F4	AD	09/22/2006	09/22/2006	03/08/2005	06/22/1998	01/01/2002
	FD	09/15/2007	09/15/2007	11/22/2005	04/22/1999	09/01/2002

1st: Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Citizens (about 23,400 per year).
2A: The 2 "A" preference is for Spouses and Children (under 21 & unmarried) of LPR's.
2B: The 2 "B" Preference is for Unmarried Sons and Daughters (21 or older) of LPR's.
3rd: Married Sons and Daughters of Citizens (about 23,400 per year)
4th: Brothers and Sisters of Adult Citizens. (about 65,000 per year)

Employment		Other Countries	China	El Salvador Guatemala Honduras	India	Mexico	Philippines	Vietnam
EB1	AD	C	04/01/2019	C	04/01/2019	C	C	C
	FD	C	11/01/2020	C	11/01/2020	C	C	C
EB2	AD	C	05/01/2016	C	10/01/2009	C	C	C
	FD	C	10/01/2016	C	05/15/2011	C	C	C
EB3	AD	C	11/01/2017	C	03/15/2010	C	C	C
	FD	C	06/01/2018	C	01/01/2014	C	C	C
Other Workers	AD	C	02/15/2009	C	03/15/2010	C	C	C
	FD	C	05/01/2009	C	01/01/2014	C	C	C
EB4	AD	C	C	02/01/2018	C	11/22/2018	C	C
	FD	C	C	05/01/2018	C	C	C	C
EB5	AD	C	08/15/2015	C	C	C	C	09/01/2017
	FD	C	12/15/2015	C	C	C	C	C

1st: Priority Workers (Extraordinary ability aliens, multinational companies executives/managers, outstanding prof./researchers)

2nd: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability.

3rd: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers (Unskilled.)

4th: "Special Immigrants" (Religious & others)    

5th: Employment Creation (Investors)

(Immigration laws and policies change regularly.  If you have any questions regarding this article, please visit www.1visa1.com to schedule legal consultation.) 

Visa Bulletin Predictions - December 2020 and Beyond - 262,000 EB Numbers Expected

                                                

Today in a virtual immigration conference hosted in New Jersey, DOS Visa Office Chief Mr. Charlie Oppenheim provided some exceptional insights about the upcoming visa bulletins and other related issues:

December 2020 Visa Bulletin

EB-1 India and China will advance to 04/01/2019.  Other Employment Preference categories will also advance, except EB-4 and EB-5.

Family Preference categories will hold steady in December.

January 2020 Visa Bulletin

Family Preference categories are expected to advance. Charlie specifically mentioned that he expects the Philippines categories to advance.

Usage of Visa Numbers During COVID

Charlie explained that usually the State Department uses up about 95% of all family-based visa numbers in overseas cases, while DHS uses up about 85% of the employment-based visa numbers within the U.S. 

This year, due to COVID and shutdown of the U.S. Consulates, there has been 122,000 unused family-based visa numbers. These numbers went to the employment-based categories by law. 

On the employment side, unused EB-1 numbers spill over to EB-2, then to EB-3 and back to EB-1. Unused EB-4 and EB-5 numbers also go to EB-1.  

For FY 2020, between 8,000 to 9,000 EB-5 numbers were unused due to consulate closure, mostly notably Guangzhou, China. These numbers were captured by EB-1, first to the Worldwide countries, and then to other oversubscribed categories based on priority dates. 

Diversity Visa cases were initially blocked by executive orders. Applicants were still able to submit applications. Charlie explained that normally documents are submitted in November and December and more rapid movements happen in April or May.

Allocation of Overseas Visa Numbers 

Charlie explained that he allocates blocks of visa numbers each month to each overseas consulate, although a percentage of numbers are usually unused due to insufficient documentation, etc. He would estimate the percentages of unused visa numbers - which are reverted back to the DOS inventory - when he sets the Final Action dates for the following month's Visa Bulletin.

Final Action Dates vs. Filing Dates

Charlie explained that the State Department sets the Filing Dates about 8 to 12 months ahead of expected visa availability so that documents can be collected in advance from overseas applicants. DHS may also choose to use the Filing Date chart based on their caseload and resources. For the last fiscal year, DHS only chose to use the Filing Dates in the early months.  Still, Charlie mentioned that DHS usage of immigrants visa numbers in adjustment cases has become more visible to him, which in turn enabled him to more accurately set the cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletins.  For example, for FS 2020, his use of employment-based visa numbers were within 9,000 of the available numbers, or 147K of 156K.  

Overview of Visa Numbers: All-time-high of 262K EB Numbers

Charlie explained that there are statutory limits of 262K and 140K immigrant visa  numbers for family-based and employment-based visa categories respectively.  As explained, unused family numbers are spilled over to the employment categories.  As a result, for FY 2021, Charlie expects an all-time-high of 262K available visa numbers for the employment categories.  Diversity Visa numbers are expected to remain at 55K. 

Delay of Visa Bulletin Release

When asked about the delay of the recent Visa Bulletin releases, Charlie explained that each Visa Bulletin needs to be cleared by certain groups of individuals, without further elaboration.  Apparently the recent delay was caused by slower clearance process. 

 (Immigration laws and policies change regularly.  If you have any questions regarding this article, please visit www.1visa1.com to schedule legal consultation.) 

Visa Bulletin Predictions by Charles Oppenheim - December 2016 and Onward

Every month after the release of the monthly visa bulletin, DOS Visa Office Chief Mr. Charlie Oppenheim would provide his insights on the trends, movements, predictions, etc., regarding the usage of immigrant visa numbers.  The following are the highlights of his insights following the publication of the December 2016 Visa Bulletin:  

• Charles predicts that EB-1 China and EB-1 India will be subject to a final action date “at some point," in the near future, probably early next year.  EB-1 India has already reached the country limit, China is also getting very close.

• Charles predicts that EB-2 Worldwide, EB-2 Mexico and EB-2 Philippines will be subject to a cut-off date no later than July. 

• A final action date is imposed for EB-4 Mexico.

• EB-3 vs. EB-2 China:  EB-3 China is currently about ten months ahead of EB-2 China.  Charlie expects this gap to continue to close but is not certain about how fast the closing will be.  He is limiting the forward movement of EB-3 China to accommodate for an anticipated influx of cases from "downgrading" form EB-2 China.

• EB-3 vs. EB-3 India:  EB-3 upgrades are putting significant pressure on the EB-2 India category. Charles hopes that EB-2 India's final action date will move into 2009 at some point this fiscal year, but Charlie is not sure about when that may happen.  Unlike the past few years, heavy demand for EB-2 Worldwide this year means means little or no visa numbers are left to reallocate to EB-2 India.   For EB-3 India, Charles expects that it would "move up to one week, hold for several months, then move one week, and then hold again."

• EB-2 Worldwide/Mexico/Philippines:  Charlie speculates that a cut-off date will be imposed no later than July for these categories due to heavy demand.

• EB-3 Worldwide:  Charlie continues his warning about increasing demand for this category but he is not sure whether "this demand will be sustained."  

• Charles's reminds about the December 9, 2016 expiration date of the non-minister EB-4 special immigrant category and the immigrant investor pilot program (I5 and R5).

• Lack of visibility regarding EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras over the next 12 months: "We are aware that there was a very large volume of EB-4 Mexico cases already processed with 2015 and 2016 priority dates, and this is why we imposed a cut-off date for December.... Despite the high demand, at this time we do not anticipate a retrogression of the EB-4 final action date for these four countries this fiscal year, but because of the lack of visibility into USCIS data, we will continue to monitor the situation closely."

• EB-4 annual country limit for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico: "None of these countries has reached the annual limit for this fiscal year yet, but we expect them to do so early in FY 2017."

(Source: AILA Doc. No. 14071401)

(Immigration laws and policies change regularly.  If you have any questions regarding this article, please visit www.1visa1.com to schedule a legal consultation.)  

Visa Bulletin Predictions by Charlie Oppenheim for April 2016 and Thereafter

Once again, State Department's Charlie Oppenheim provided his monthly predictions and analysis through AILA after the the publication of the April 2016 Visa Bulletin.  The following are the highlights:

1) Final Action Date Movements Consistent with Prior Predictions. "The Final Action Dates in the April 2016 Visa Bulletin are consistent with Charlie's predictions last month. In February, Charlie predicted that we would continue to see forward movement of up to five months in EB-2 and EB-3 China, and in April, EB-2 China will advance one month and EB-3 China will advance one and a half months. This modest advancement is attributable to an increase in I-485 cases in these categories coming to completion."

2) EB-2 and EB-3 India Predictions:  "April movement in the Indian employment-based categories is also consistent with Charlie's predictions last month. The EB-2 India Final Action Date will advance less than one month in April, moving to November 8, 2008. Forward movement in this category could be slower than originally expected due to increasing demand in this category which can be attributed to upgrades from EB-3 India. Additionally, EB-1 Worldwide usage continues at a steady pace, making it unclear how many numbers might be available to fall down for potential use in EB-2 India. This should become clearer in the coming months as additional demand data becomes available. The EB-3 India Final Action Date will also advance only three weeks to August 8, 2004."

3) EB-3 China Slowing Down Due to Downgrades:  Charlie is concerned that EB-3 downgrade cases from EB-2 China may soon create a sudden jump in visa demand. Hence, he is limiting this category's forward movement as a precaution. 

4) Accurate Predictions of Visa Usage Difficult Because of Unpredictable USCIS Visa Use:  Charlie explained that he would not know about when an immigrant visa is needed until USCIS completes adjudication of an I-485 and requests a visa number. Because the processing times of various USCIS offices are different, it makes it difficult to predict future demand and to establish Final Action cut-off dates that are less volatile.  Charles states that "Additional transparency and data analytics into pending I-485s would be helpful, and it is hoped that USCIS's use of the Dates for Filing will eventually provide such insight."

5) Charlie Wants to Advance Final Dates Slowly to Avoid Retrogression:  Charlie explained that, as unpredictable as the visa usage maybe, his job is to make assumptions and predictions about future visa usage and advance the Final Action dates accordingly.  However, to avoid the need to retrogress cut-off dates, his adopts a conservative approach - to advance carefully.  On the other hand, he must also try to use up all available visa numbers during the fiscal year, an objective which often requires him to advance cut-ff dates aggressively.   Charlie uses EB-3 Worldwide as an example. This visa category has advanced 16 months during the past year in an attempt to use up all visa numbers.

6) Announcing the NVC EB-5 Investor Assistance Desk.  The new National Visa Center (NVC) EB-5 Investor Assistance Desk has been established.  A dedicated email address (NVCeb5@state.gov) was also created to address EB-5 inquiries. 

March 2015 Visa Bulletin - India EB-2 advances 16 months

In the March 2015 Visa Bulletin recently released by the U.S. State Department, the headline news is the significant advances in several employment categories. Employment Second (EB-2) India jumps forward significantly by 16 months.  EB-2 China advances 4.5 months. EB-3 China advances by seven (7) weeks.

Charles Oppenheim of the State Department discussed about the pros and cons of advancing the cut-off date for EB-2 India in December.  Apparently, a decision was made to advance this category, as shown by the significant advancements in February's and March's Visa Bulletins.

The family visa categories continue to advance modestly.  Family 2A (spouse and children of legal residents) move forward by six (6) weeks for China, India, Philippines, and Other Countries.  Please see below for details. 

FAMILY	Other Countries	China	India	Mexico	Philippines
F1	08/01/07	08/01/07	08/01/07	10/22/94	02/01/05
F2A	06/22/13	06/22/13	06/22/13	05/22/13	06/22/13
F2B	07/08/08	07/08/08	07/08/08	01/01/95	03/22/04
F3	01/22/04	01/22/04	01/22/04	02/22/94	08/01/93
F4	05/15/02	05/15/02	05/15/02	06/01/97	09/08/91

1st: Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Citizens (about 23,000 per year).

2A: The 2 "A" preference is for Spouses and Children (under 21 & unmarried) of LPR's.

2B: The 2 "B" Preference is for Unmarried Sons and Daughters (21 or older) of LPR's.

3rd: Married Sons and Daughters of Citizens.(about 23,000 per year)

4th: Brothers and Sisters of Adult Citizens.(about 65,000 per year)

EMPLOYMENT	Other Countries	China	India	Mexico	Philippines
EB1	C	C	C	C	C
EB2	C	09/01/10	01/01/07	C	C
EB3	06/01/14	10/22/11	01/01/04	06/01/14	06/01/14
Other Workers	06/01/14	08/15/05	01/01/04	06/01/14	06/01/14
EB4	C	C	C	C	C
EB5	C	C	C	C	C

1st: Priority Workers (Extraordinary ability aliens, multinational companies executives/managers, outstanding prof./researchers)

2nd: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability.

3rd: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers (Unskilled.)

4th: "Special Immigrants" (Religious & others)

5th: Employment Creation (Investors)

Visa Bulletin Predictions by Charlie Oppenheim

Charles ("Charlie") Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, made the following predictions and projections regarding the upcoming Visa Bulletins pursuant to AILA's DOS Liaison Committee:

1) No major changes in his previous predictions until February and March of next year.  The current trends (including slow movement of India's EB-2 and Eb-3) will continue for a few more months.

2) EB-5 China Movements:  Monthly updates are forth coming on EB-5 China starting January 2015.

3) EB-3 China:  Advancement will continue but at a "slower pace" than early 2014.  Demand for visa numbers may increase due to downgrades to EB-3.  If that does not happen by December or January, advancement will be more rapid starting in February.

Visa Bulletin Predictions by State Department's Charlie Oppenheim

On Monday April 21, 2014 Mr. Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State's Visa Office (VO) spoke to AILA members about his impressions as to the future movements of the immigrant visa bulletin.  The State Department controls visa number allocations and Mr. Oppenheim's office is responsible for the publication of the monthly Visa Bulletin.

According to Mr. Oppenheim:

• Employment Based 2nd Preference India (EB-2) will likely advance to 2008 in August or September as a measure to use up all remaining EB-2 visa numbers for the fiscal year.  The "spill-over" from EB-1 and unused EB-2 Worldwide numbers could amount to about 5,000 additional visa numbers.  This is good news for Indian nationals who are applying for U.S. green cards.

• Employment Based 3rd Preference Worldwide (EB-3)'s forward movement will likely stop, and may even retrogress in May to control demand.

• Employment Based 3rd Preference China (EB-3) may retrogress in May due to high demand from applicants "downgrading" from EB-2 to EB-3.  Therefore, eligible applicants should file their I-485 applications as soon as possible. 

• Employment Based 5th Preference ("Investment Visa") China (EB-5) could retrogress in August or September.  Currently over 7,000 I-526 applications are pending and 80% of them are from China.

• Family Based Second Preference 2A Worldwide (FB-2A) will retrogress back to 2012 in the June or July Visa Bulletin. FB-2A for Mexico will also retrogress. 

• Family Based Second Preference 2B Worldwide (FB-2B) will likely advance due to lower demand. 

Other notes:  The National Visa Center (NVC) is sending out invoices for visa payments 8 to 12 months in advance the of the priority date becoming current.  Applicants are encouraged to pay the fees earlier so that the Visa Office may confirm overseas demand for immigrant visas.  Early payment and processing of visa documents will also speed up the immigration process.