The wait is finally over for thousands of prospective employers and foreign national professionals. USCIS has officially announced that it has successfully completed both the regular and advanced-degree lotteries, meeting the annual quota of 85,000 H-1B cap beneficiaries (65,000 standard cap and 20,000 master's cap). All selected registrations should have been updated in the employer's online account.
Although USCIS has not yet published the official registration statistics for this year, the FY 2027 lottery represents a seismic shift in U.S. immigration policy. Based on early predictive modeling, the estimated probabilities of selection for the regular cap are approximately 10–15% for Level 1, 25–30% for Level 2, 50–55% for Level 3, and 70–80% for Level 4. For the master's cap, the projected selection rates are significantly higher, sitting at roughly 20–25% for Level 1, 40–50% for Level 2, 65–75% for Level 3, and an impressive 85–95% for Level 4.
This year, our firm achieved an overall selection rate of 43%, with the majority of our registrations falling under the master's cap. The breakdown by wage level is: Level 1: 23%; Level 2: 50%; Level 3: 100%; and Level 4: 33%. Surprisingly, we had three Level 4 registrations that were not selected. However, since our sample is statistically small, we cannot draw any meaningful interpretations from it.
What Happens Next for Selected Beneficiaries?
If you or your prospective employee were selected, employers must log into their myUSCIS accounts to view the selection notices. Beneficiaries cannot check their status independently; notifications go directly to the employers or their immigration attorneys.
For selected beneficiaries, the H-1B petition filing window is officially open from April 1, 2026, through June 30, 2026. Preparers will face new administrative hurdles this year, as USCIS has mandated the use of a new Form I-129 (edition date 02/27/26) which requires expanded wage data. It is critical that the full petition contains the exact same identifying information, position details, and valid passport or travel document submitted during the initial registration. Because USCIS has explicitly stated it will scrutinize petitions for any mismatches, employers and legal practitioners should brace for an increased volume of audits, site visits, and formal Requests for Evidence (RFEs).
Second Lottery?
Some candidates still harbor hopes for a second draw in the summer. It is important to note that a second lottery is not guaranteed. For example, there was none last year. A second lottery may be unlikely this year due to several reasons. For one, a higher percentage of the selectees are at level 3 and 4 wage. Because these selections are tied to highly paid, concrete roles with committed corporate budgets, employers are far less likely to abandon the petition after selection. This lower "drop-off" rate means USCIS is more likely to hit its 85,000 quota on the first try. Further, USCIS usually selects a surplus of registrations because it already anticipates that some employers will decide not to file, candidates will decline job offers, or petitions will be rejected for technical reasons. Finally, the "beneficiary-centric" rule implemented by the agency also drastically reduced duplicate registrations and fraud, creating a much cleaner applicant pool.
For individuals who were not selected in this year's lottery, it is critical to have alternative immigration strategies in place. As we always advise our clients, proactive planning is the key to a successful U.S. immigration journey.
