State Department's Charlie Oppenheim made the following
predictions to AILA regarding the Visa Bulletin after the release of the August 2014
bulletin:
Family Immigration:
Family 2A (spouses and minor children of permanent
residents): The F2A cut-off date will advance in September from May 2012 a few
months to fall 2012. The number of cases in this visa category with current priority
dates has declined.
Employment Immigration:
EB-3 China: This category has started to advance in August
after two months of retrogression. The
prediction is that it will continue to advance. The number of
"downgrade" cases has decreased and there are also spill-over visa
numbers from family immigration.
EB-2 India: This category will retrogress as early as
November for Fiscal Year 2015. The prediction, according to Mr. Oppenheim, is based on "a number of
variables such as historical demand patterns, expected future demand patterns,
expected return rates of unused numbers, information received from USCIS on
expected processing, and National Visa Center (NVC) petition processing
trends."
EB-5 China: This
category will likely no longer be current in FY2015. A cut-off date will be established as early
as June 2015 but no later than August 2015 due to ever-increasing demands and
faster USCIS approvals.
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