A blog about U.S. immigration matters by Paul Szeto, a former INS attorney and an experienced immigration lawyer. We serve clients in all U.S. states and overseas countries. (All information is not legal advice and is subject to change without prior notice.)

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Monday, September 23, 2019

October 2019 Visa Bulletin Predictions & Beyond

Every month after the release of the monthly visa bulletin, DOS Visa Office Chief Mr. Charlie Oppenheim provides his insights on the trends, movements, predictions, etc. regarding the usage of immigrant visa numbers. The following are his most important insights following the publication of the October 2019 visa bulletin.

Note that USCIS will be using filing date chart for both employment-based and family-based immigration for October 2019.

All countries are expected to have monthly movement for family categories. The Philippines is noted to have insignificant demand, leading to "artificially rapid" movement in Final Action Dates. F2A worldwide demand is also very low. While F2A will remain current worldwide, Charlie expects demand to increase and Final Action Dates to be imposed in early 2020.

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Charlie says that EB-1 should not be expected to become current anytime soon. It is also unlikely that EB-1 China and India will have unused visa numbers going into FY2020. EB-1 India is expected not to advance until January 2020 and will likely remain backlogged for years. The rest of the world, including China, is predicted to continue advancing up to 3 months.

Unlike in past years, EB-2 China will not fully recover from retrogression in FY2020. It will advance slowly up to 2 months. EB-2 and EB-3 worldwide are expected to stay current until demand increases, which would likely be in the second half of the fiscal year. EB-2 India is expected to remain relatively stagnant.

EB-3 India and China are expected to have little to no movement. EB-3 Philippines may move up several months. Charlie notes that EB-3 Other Workers demand has skyrocketed for Mexico, which may necessitate the category having a separate Final Action Date from EB-3 Mexico in FY2020.

EB-4 is expected to remain current for most countries except El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico.

EB-5 India and Vietnam will not be current for a while despite rumors. China and India will continue to have Final Action Dates as well. According to Charlie, it is too early to predict any advancements for EB-5.

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