When the administration announced a $100,000 supplemental fee for new H-1B petitions filed on or after 12:01 a.m. EDT September 21, 2025, many U.S. employers were alarmed. The new rule—targeting petitions for workers outside the United States—adds another barrier to hiring international talent.
Yet there may be a silver lining: this unprecedented fee could unintentionally raise the odds of selection in next year’s H-1B lottery for those who still enter—especially for U.S.-based candidates whose filings do not trigger the fee.
Employers may avoid fee-triggering overseas filings
Under the presidential Proclamation, the $100,000 payment applies to new petitions for beneficiaries outside the U.S. who lack a valid H-1B visa, or to petitions requesting consular notification or port-of-entry inspection. Employers who might previously have registered large numbers of offshore candidates could think twice before committing to a filing that now costs an additional $100,000.
Employers may shift their sponsorship focus toward candidates already in the U.S. (who can file a change of status) since those petitions avoid the new fee. This shift could further reduce the share of foreign-based, consular-processing cases in the lottery pool.
Reduced competition means higher selection chances
If thousands of overseas candidates are never registered, the total registration pool may shrink, improving the ratio of selections to registrations for those who remain—especially F-1/OPT holders and other foreign students already in the United States.
The data also supports this observation. Specifically, the government’s annual Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers reports give us an indirect clue. In FY 2022, 38.8% of initial H-1B filings are for overseas consulate processing. In FY 2023, the number jumped to approximately 50%.
|
Fiscal Year |
% Consular/Port-of-Entry Notification |
% Change of Status |
Source |
|
FY 2022 |
38.8 % |
59.2 % |
|
|
FY 2023 |
~50 % |
~50 % |
Caveat: Those reports cover all initial H-1B approvals, including cap-subject petitions selected in the lottery, as well as petitions by cap-exempt employers (universities, research institutions, nonprofits); and petitions for previously cap-counted workers. Hence, the datasets are broader than just the lottery. Still, these numbers demonstrate that a significant share of H-1B filings involve overseas consular processing. If employers pull back on those filings to avoid the $100,000 fee, the overall number of lottery-eligible registrations should fall significantly.
Another intervening factor: Wage-based selection system
The same Proclamation introducing the fee directs the DHS and DOL to propose a weighted or wage-based selection system—where higher-paid H-1B offers receive preference. DHS previewed this concept in a September 2025 proposed rule that would award multiple “entries” to higher wage-level positions. If implemented, this would complement the $100,000 fee by further skewing selections toward U.S.-based, higher-wage workers, particularly those already on F-1 OPT or STEM OPT.
While the fee is punitive in one sense, the combined policy direction points toward a smaller, higher-wage, domestically sourced H-1B population. However, while multinational tech or consulting companies could still afford to file abroad and pay higher wages, smaller employers would be at a disadvantage. Also, lower-level positions (especially the non-tech ones) might see little benefit from reduced competition.
Bottom line
Even though the $100,000 H-1B fee creates serious cost and compliance concerns, its deterrent effect on overseas filings could increase lottery odds for those still participating—particularly domestic change-of-status applicants already in the United States.
In that sense, the fee may unintentionally achieve what many frustrated H-1B aspirants have wanted for years: a smaller registration pool, a higher selection probability, and a system that (at least temporarily) favors those already building their careers in the U.S.
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